I have just returned from the Association of British Travel Agents' annual bash, held this year in Lisbon, where 1,600 travel industry pundits gathered for a moan about business post September 11. The mood was sombre. The opening music and graphics (of globes floating in dark spaces with captions such as 'the world will never be the same again') was like the opening credits of a World in Action programme on famine. Normally this event is a cross between Club 18-30 and a business workshop. Brainstorming by day, boogieing by night.

But this year, the event was about famine rather than feast. Abta president Stephen Bath described trading as more difficult than during the Gulf war. Winter bookings are 30 per cent down and summer ones are 50 per cent down.

On the panel sat bedraggled chiefs of large holiday companies including Thomas Cook, Lunn Poly, Airtours and First Choice. At first I suspected the pale-faced, black-clad crew had been out on the tiles the night before, but it soon became apparent they were the burnt-out results of the seven most stressful weeks in their careers. They are the remnants of big purges. More than 3,000 staff from travel agents and tour operators have lost their jobs since 11 September.

Airtours boss Richard Carrick was the most cheery on the panel. 'In January we need a co-ordinated effort to get British people back on holiday. There has never been a better time to travel with great prices,' he said.

But his encouragement seemed to fall on deaf ears. The agents I spoke to at the conference wanted to know how they could convince customers to buy dream holidays with an anorexic, demotivated and resentful workforce.

Then there was lots of confusing information for the public. On the one hand we are being told there are lots of bargains, but at the same time, tour operators and airlines are cutting capacity. This means that if there is a big booking surge in January for summer 2002 holidays, there won't be many late bargains around in July and August because holidays will have sold out. So, if you decide to wait for a last-minute bargain, not only may there not be one, but you might not be able to get your bum on a seat anywhere in the Med at all - however much you are willing to spend.

Secondly there were murmurings about surcharges. Travel firms are unwilling to swallow the extra costs of security and want to change the rules so that they can pass those costs on to the customer. This means that after booking your holiday, you get a bill through the post for £100 a few weeks or months later. Now how confident does that make you feel about rushing out to the travel agent and booking a holiday?