Will the foot-and-mouth crisis prompt a stampede for foreign holidays this summer? The knee-jerk view among commentators is that a slump in domestic bookings means sold-out signs will soon be going up everywhere else. Don't panic. The idea that people deprived of fell walking in Cumbria are besieging travel agencies in pursuit of sun, sea and scorched skin on the Spanish Costas is patently absurd, as is the notion that last-minute discounts from tour operators will be in particularly short supply.
Britain's biggest tour operator, Thomson, still has around one million packages left to sell - about the same number available at this point last spring - and the firm says there is no evidence that the epidemic has produced a major upswing in business.
Logic suggests that if there is to be a significant beneficiary, it will be France. However, most operators specialising in French holidays say they have seen no major upsurge in business yet. One view is that people are waiting to see how the crisis develops here. This is corroborated by ferry operator Hoverspeed, which reports a sharp rise in last-minute bookings.
Owen Davies, marketing director of The Individual Travellers Company, which offers self-catering properties in France, Spain, Italy, Portugal and New England, reports an increase of around 10% in enquiries compared with this time last year. "France is definitely the leading contender but in general people are asking what there is to do in particular areas rather than committing themselves. We had a surge of last-minute interest from people trying to get away for Easter, and I suspect that if the foot-and-mouth crisis continues, the same could happen in June."
His firm has French properties still available for the school summer holidays in Normandy, Brittany, Charente and the Vendee and even some in the Dordogne.
With so many footpaths closed, increased demand for overseas walking holidays is inevitable. Frank McCready, managing director of Sherpa Expeditions, says: "Areas such as Tuscany and Umbria are filling very quickly. The easiest country for flights and accommodation at present is Switzerland."
However, Headwater says it has French walking packages available in Alsace, Creuse, Tarn and the Cevennes, and Richard Hearn, managing director of Inntravel, reports a surge of interest in French, Italian, Spanish and Norwegian walking holidays until the end of June, but says bookings remain at normal levels from July onward.
• A list of tour operators to France can be found at www.holidayfrance.org.uk.
