The events of September 11 were so apocalyptic that it seemed in the immediate aftermath that the landscape of travel would be altered forever. A year on, it remains heavily scarred, but the slow process of regeneration has begun.
Summer package holiday bookings are down, but the slump is not as devastating as had been feared. So far, at least, the rash of travel company bankruptcies has not been as severe as was anticipated. And while the drop in scheduled air travel has proved longer lasting than it was after the Gulf war, many of the international flights axed by airlines last autumn have been restored.
The number of tourists coming to Britain plunged by 7% in the year to June, compared with the previous 12 months. But according to the Office for National Statistics, it rose by 7% in the second quarter, against the same three months last year. It reports June visits up 3% on the same month in 2001, though the British Incoming Tour Operators' Association reports arrivals down 1.33%.
While incidents such as last week's arrest of a man alleged to be intent on hi-jacking a Ryanair jet will hardly help, research suggests that fear of terrorism is now less of a deterrent than the economic downturn. In the US, the domestic leisure travel has picked up much more quickly than business trips. A survey there by the online reservations firm Travelocity found that while 14.4% of Americans cited "concerns for their personal safety" as the reason for avoiding travel immediately after the attacks a mere 2.6% still feel that way.
The British still want to travel, it seems, but are inclined to spend less time away. A survey published last month predicted that although they would take fewer holidays overall this year, they would book 8% more short breaks.
Many of the past year's changes would have happened eventually in any case. They were simply hastened by the impact of the attacks. The phenomenal rise of the budget airlines, for example, which has included the emergence of bmi British Midland's low-cost operation bmibaby, was already unstoppable. Just as predictable in the longer term was the response of some conventional carriers, including British Airways, which has removed the old Saturday night stay restric tion from its cheapest fares and offered discounts to passengers booking online.
That said, it will clearly still be some time before travel gets back to some semblance of its former state. The Association of European Airlines says that its members - the region's major scheduled carriers - are carrying 15% fewer transatlantic passengers. So far this year, according to the British Tourist Authority, the number of trips to the UK by North Americans is still 11% lower than in the equivalent period of 2000.
There is general agreement that people have tended to travel shorter distances, though it is not clear whether that is because of the higher cost of long-haul holidays or a feeling that it will be easier to get home if another crisis arises. The three fastest growing destinations for Japanese tourists this summer, for example, are China, Indonesia and Australia.
Industry intelligence suggests that summer package bookings from Britain will finish between 5% and 8% down overall, with families still reluctant to travel. Overall business is down by around 10% in Spain, and German operators have also suffered.
Following the demise of carriers including Swissair and Sabena, concern persists over the financial health of some scheduled airlines. Timetable specialist OAG says that only 4% fewer flights are now operating worldwide compared with the 10% cut made after September 11, and that those on routes within the US are 7% lower, compared with a 16% reduction immediately after the attacks. As carriers there continue to struggle, some have announced additional capacity cuts that will come into effect this winter.
Although the 23 licensed air package tour operators who went under in the year to the end of March represented a doubling of the previous year's figure, the toll was much the same as that suffered in the mid to late 1990s. A key date looms at the end of this month, however, when many firms must renew their licences. It remains possible that a larger than usual number will throw in the towel or fail to survive the Civil Aviation Authority's scrutiny of their finances.
It need hardly be said that long-term recovery will depend on President Bush's decision as to whether or not to invade Iraq. But in the US at least, another cloud hovers on the skyline. Washington has set a December 31 deadline for the screening of all checked in bags. But many airport managers fear they will miss the deadline, prompting a warning that some passengers could face delays of up to three hours.
More immediately, there is next week's grim anniversary. One leading UK tour operator says: "We feel it is a big psychological barrier. We see it as line, and if it is crossed safely it will be a weight off consumers' minds."
